On November 11, 2026, TechFlow reported, citing The Block, that options pricing from Derive implied a higher chance Bitcoin would finish Christmas below $70,000.
What the pricing showed
Derive’s options prices put the probability of a Bitcoin close below $70,000 at Christmas at 31%, up from 15% the previous week. Over the same period, the implied probability of a close above $80,000 fell from 53% to 26%.
Those figures are probabilities implied by listed options prices. They are not a statement that either level will be reached.
Defensive options flow
Derive founder and CEO Nick Forster said traders were turning defensive. He said Bitcoin options trading volume on the platform the prior week was $418 million, up 37%. Put options accounted for 55% of trading premiums, compared with 36% the week before.
Futures open interest versus price
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said Bitcoin perpetual-futures open interest on Tuesday was about 353,000 BTC. That was up 12% over the previous 30 days, while the Bitcoin price fell 10% over the same period.
Lunde said a move lower could trigger a large amount of long liquidations, while a rebound could prompt shorts to cover. In his view, either path could amplify price swings. That is his assessment, not a measured outcome.
What remains unproven
The report links a shift in Derive’s implied Christmas probabilities with heavier put premiums and rising perpetual open interest during a price decline. It does not show whether those positions were hedges or directional bets, and it does not establish where Bitcoin will trade at Christmas.
Original report: TechFlow, published November 11, 2026 at 22:47 (UTC+8), citing The Block.
