In the past few weeks, something interesting has been quietly happening behind the Bitcoin charts: retail investors are starting to come back. While it hasn’t exploded in huge numbers yet, the signs are clear.
Carmelo Aleman, an on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, notes that from April 28 to May 13, buying volume from small investors—those holding between $0 and $10,000 worth of Bitcoin—rose by about 3.4%. Small? At first glance, yes. But this is the group that is usually the quickest to flee when the market wobbles, and now they’re back. That’s not something to ignore.
Source: CryptoQuant
What’s more interesting is that the retail crowd’s return comes at a time when the Bitcoin spot market is actually quiet. The latest data from CoinGlass shows that daily trading volume is down 0.88%, with a total transaction value of around US$87.91 billion.
Not only that, Open Interest in the futures market is also down 0.94% to $66.45 billion. It could be that many are taking profits, or perhaps some traders have chosen to step aside first, waiting for the market direction to be clearer. This phenomenon is somewhat similar to the quiet atmosphere before a storm. Calm, but tense.
When Traders Hedge, Retail Starts to Sneak In
Well, even though the spot and futures markets are rather sluggish, the options market actually presents a different story. Bitcoin Options Volume has indeed fallen quite sharply, around 24.14% to $2.90 billion. But strangely, Options Open Interest has actually increased by 1.07% to $39.84 billion. What does it mean? Many traders have started opening medium or long-term positions, but have not rushed to execute.
You could say they are setting up a net—either to anticipate a spike or just in case there is a sharp decline. In the crypto world, this strategy is usually used for hedging or speculating on future price directions.
On the other hand, the BTC/USDT Long/Short Ratio data from Binance shows a figure of 0.8116 based on the number of accounts. This means that more people are taking short positions than long ones.
In other words, many small traders are still hesitant and choose to be cautious. But precisely in the middle of this doubt, retail investors are showing signs of optimism by entering slowly. Just imagine, in the middle of pessimistic voices, the group that used to be the most easily panicked is now starting to fill the stage again.
Meanwhile, as of press time, BTC is swapped hands at about $101,771.63, up 2.25% over the last 7 days and driving its market cap to surpass the $2 trillion mark.
Bitcoin May See a Domino of Fresh Activity
If this trend persists, it is not impossible that we will see a spike in the number of active addresses, an increase in transfer volumes, and more new wallets appearing. Usually, when retail starts to arrive, the domino effect is quite wide—from DeFi, staking, to small token speculation that suddenly skyrockets.
Experience from previous cycles shows that retail flows can be the initial fuel for mass adoption. And while they don’t always bring accuracy in purchase timing, they have the collective power to drive the narrative and make the market “alive” again.
Furthermore, this development occurs as political pressures are also starting to move in a more crypto-friendly direction. CNF previously reported that Mayor Eric Adams is again pushing for New York to become the world’s Bitcoin center.
He has voiced support for the Bitcoin Reserve Bill and has tried to entice industry players to relocate their operations to the city. If support from authorities continues to grow, it could bolster retail investors’ confidence that they are not sailing alone.