Bitcoin Faces Significant Test at $101.5k Level
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a huge test at the $101.5k level, as profit taking and external factors force it below $103k. According to our market data, the asset has declined by 1.6% in the last 24 hours. However, weekly and monthly investors are still up by 1.9% and 18% gains, respectively.
Supporting this trend, investors’ interest seems to have also declined as the daily trading volume falls by 14% to $43.6 billion. Above all, retail activities have significantly dropped while institutional investors dominate the overall trading activities. Confirming this discovery, an analyst identified as River highlighted that the largest net sellers of Bitcoin this year have been the retail investors. Specifically, retailers have sold 247,000 BTC ($23 billion).
Source: River
Another look into this claim using Google search trends for the term “Bitcoin” showed a considerable decline. The level matched that of June 2024 when Bitcoin was trading around $66,000.
On a positive note, retailers have been predicted to significantly contribute to buying pressure in about a week when Bitcoin possibly attempts to break the $109k level. It can be recalled that Google search for the term received an incredible volume in just three months after its earlier drop, sending the price to above $73k.
Another item that has served as a proxy for retail demand is the Coinbase App. On November 15, 2024, when Bitcoin made an explosive surge to a new high, the Coinbase app jumped in position from 40th to 5th on the US app store. Currently, the Coinbase app is ranked 15th in the finance category.
As also indicated in our recent blog post, the smallest retail holders (less than 0.1 BTC holders) have sold 387 BTC, while the whales (10-10K BTC holders) have accumulated 83,105 BTC in just 30 days. According to Santiment data, these small holders were simply taking profits while the whales were expanding their position for a long-term gain.
Similarly, data suggests that the illiquid supply of Bitcoin has increased to 14 million BTC, with 180,000 BTC added in a single month. Per Glassnode data, this is the highest single-month addition since December 2022.
Commenting on the overall impact on the price, network economist Timothy Peterson highlighted that the asset could reach a new all-time high in June. Meanwhile, he believes that April and October have been the most bullish months in the entire annual performance of the asset. As also mentioned in our previous news brief, Peterson believes that Bitcoin could hit an average target of $126k in June.
In the long term, Standard Chartered estimates that the asset could trade at $500k. As discussed in our earlier news coverage, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, argues that the market cap of Bitcoin could reach $10 trillion by 2029, surpassing the valuation of Apple and Microsoft.