Bitcoin Trading Around $104,400 with Expectations of Sharp Rise by Year-End
Bitcoin was trading around $104,400 on Friday, having peaked briefly near $105,000 earlier in the day. The pullback did not set off the alarm. There are those holding out, predicting a sharp rise by year’s end. Among them is Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, predicting that Bitcoin can go up to $200,000 by December 31st, citing several key drivers.
Speaking in a recent interview, Hougan presented an argument on the basis of growing institutional demand and regulatory certainty.
Bitcoin’s Future Prediction: $200,000 by December
“Our prediction is that Bitcoin is going to eclipse over $200,000 by the end of the year,” He emphasized that the U.S. government keeps Bitcoin in its strategic reserve and touched upon the increased growth of demand from major players. According to Hougan, all of this is setting the stage for increased price traction in the coming months.
Bitcoin has already increased 24% over the last month despite the unstable financial markets. Stocks have fallen, and economic doubt has undermined market sentiment. Hougan observed this hesitation.
“You may be wondering, why aren’t prices higher?” he said.
The reason is we’ve had a bunch of economic uncertainty that’s caused not just Bitcoin but all risky assets to fall.
Institutional Buys, ETF Inflows Add Weight to Predictions
While macroeconomic stress has had a part in holding up Bitcoin’s progress, Hougan keeps his concentration on the demand-side drivers. He emphasized that there is a fixed supply in terms of the number of Bitcoins — there are going to be just 21 million that exist, and there are going to be just 165,000 new coins in production each year. Since there is fixed issuance, this means that the price is going to be determined mostly by adjustments in demand.
There are three areas, in Hougan’s opinion, that are leading indicators for that need: regular inflows into Bitcoin-focused ETFs, regular buys by institutional buyers such as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, and possible acquisitions by governments.
If those three things happen, I think the $200,000 target is a lock,
Bitwise’s CIO is not alone in predicting that a six-figure price is in the pipeline. Gautam Chhugani, a senior analyst with Bernstein, has also cited the same $200,000 level — but as a target for 2025. In the meantime, Intuit Trading’s Blockchain daily team has realigned their models to predict that level by this time next year in July. Their new trendline is off a rebound from the $74,000 level in April.
Short-Term Risks and Federal Reserve’s Influence
Despite long-term optimism, short-term risks have not been overlooked. A sudden action by the Federal Reserve or changes in the cost of borrowing was mentioned by Hougan as being able to undermine momentum again. Unanticipated changes in tax law or newly levied trading fees would also weigh on sentiment.