The much-anticipated rebound for Bitcoin (BTC) and the altcoin market could soon be witnessed as analysts observe a potential recovery. Using the concept of divergence, different analysts used three signals to “make a case for Bitcoin” while predicting an altseason using two key signals.
The Details of Bitcoin’s (BTC) Upside Potential
According to analysts, Bitcoin has shown a strong inverse relationship with the DXY Index (US Dollar Index) over the years. The trend changed from September 2024 to March 2025 as they both moved in the same direction. However, the inverse relationship seems to have returned since the US announced the reciprocal tariffs, as earlier explored by CNF in a blog post.
Confirming this situation, the Head of Growth at TheyaBitcoin, Joe Consorti, dropped a chart to show that DXY declined from 103.5 to 98.5 in April while Bitcoin surged from $75,000 to over $91,000, as mentioned in our previous article.
Source: Joe Consorti
According to him, the divergence represents a shift in investors’ demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven.
Bitcoin has been diverging from the US dollar since the US announced its sweeping tariff regime. Amidst this global economic reordering, gold and bitcoin are shining.
Similarly, an advisor to Blockstream, Tuur Demeester, has presented another divergence, which highlights the decoupling situation of Bitcoin from the NASDAQ index.
Historically, these two have mostly correlated directly due to their ties to macroeconomic sentiments. However, April 2025 presented a different situation when they separated and inversely correlated. While many believe that this is not necessarily bullish, Demeester argues that this could dominate headlines this year.
The final divergence for Bitcoin comes from CryptoQuant data, which hints that long-term holders have begun aggressive accumulation. Conversely, short-term holders are exiting the market.
Source: CryptoQuant
Explaining this situation, a CryptoQuant analyst clarified that the behaviour of the short-term holders is driven by price volatility and fear. Meanwhile, the long-term holders are responding to their convictions. According to him, the simultaneous occurrence of these two scenarios historically hints at an “early stage of a reaccumulation phase.”
Altseason Coming?
As discussed in our last analysis, the altseason Index currently appears extremely low. However, Chief Crypto Analyst at Realvision Jamie Coutts has pointed out that the trend could be overturned soon.
Speaking on their key divergence, he highlighted that the “365-day new lows” indicator shows a bullish reversal. Reviewing this, we found that the number of altcoins that reached their 365-day low decreased despite their overall market cap reaching a new low in April 2025.
Source: Jamie Coutts
Historically, the market cap of altcoins witnesses significant recovery after a similar pattern is recorded. In a technical sense, the downside momentum appears exhausted.
Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the Bitcoin Dominance Chart is reported to signal a strong correction. According to analyst Merlijn The Trader, this setup does not lie. Once this plays out, capital would shift from Bitcoin to the altcoin market.
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