As the third week of April 2025 unfolds
Bitcoin (BTC) is at the crossroads of mounting trade tensions and record levels of global liquidity. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin hit a record all-time high of $109,114.88 earlier this year, driven by increasing institutional demand and renewed hopes for pro-crypto policies from President Donald Trump’s administration. But the party didn’t last long.
Bitcoin has been seriously volatile since January. It dipped below $90,000 in February amid rising trade tensions, and on March 11, it dipped below $80,000 for the first time in months. Despite these corrections, BTC has of late established some degree of stability at about the $84,000 mark. Let us examine some of the drivers of Bitcoin’s path over the next few weeks.
Trade War Turmoil
In March, the United States upped its trade war against China by levying a 20% tariff on Chinese imports from 10%. China reacted at once by levying higher tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans. It only got intense with President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs of April 2 against a broad range of goods.
The rising uncertainty spills over into risk assets, with Bitcoin especially struggling to move beyond long-term levels of resistance. As The Kobeissi Letter says, “We believe the tariff exemptions announced this weekend were initially meant to be temporary. The intention was to send treasury yields back down before picking up the trade war again.” This is a tactical lull and not a de-escalation, trying to corral the yields while still maintaining increased pressure on trade partners.
Soaring M2 Money Supply
Amid the geopolitical chaos, the global M2 money supply has surged to all-time highs, stoking concerns about inflation and potential currency devaluation. M2, which includes cash, checking deposits, savings accounts, and other near-money assets, serves as a key gauge of global liquidity.
Crypto analyst Collins recently noted on X, “Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row. This is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.” Historically, large-scale monetary expansion has triggered a flight toward assets like Bitcoin, often seen as hedges against inflation. Collins added, “Global M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th.”
Institutional Movements
As inflation concerns intensify, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains cautious. According to data from SoSoValue, 12 spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $713.3 million in outflows, more than triple the $172.7 million withdrawn the previous week. From April 7 to 11, every single day saw net outflows, continuing a trend that began on April 3.
On Friday, only two ETFs showed notable activity: the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) reversed course with $11.28 million in inflows, ending a six-day streak of outflows, while the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) recorded a $12.31 million loss.
Still, the overall outlook isn’t entirely bearish. The U.S. government will be establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, funded by forfeited BTC assets from the Treasury. In the meantime, corporate players like Tesla, Metaplanet, and MicroStrategy continue to contribute to their Bitcoin treasury reserves.
Technical Indicators and Predictions
Bitcoin’s price action remains range-bound, currently trading between $83,000 and $85,000. Resistance caps upside momentum, while support is still strong, at least temporarily. Market sentiment is split: some expect a forthcoming rally, others a correction in the face of general financial uncertainty. The Fear & Greed Index currently sits at 31, indicating a state of “Fear” among investors.
Conversely, data from coinglass indicate that open interest has dropped by 1.87%, to $56.87 billion. Open interest in options has also shown a modest growth of 1.16%, which is at $29.59 billion. This shows continued, albeit slowing, growth in the options market.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez believes that BTC is in the making of a rising wedge, which could be the precursor to retesting the $79,000 support level. According to Coincodex, the price of Bitcoin will increase by 36.66% and will reach $115,721 in May. All these predictions are based on a mix of variables, including regulatory news, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic fundamentals.