Most of the top crypto assets made a swift rebound over the weekend from their yearly lows to weekly highs, reducing the significant loss of the broad market valuation and driving it to $2.67 trillion at press time. According to market data, Bitcoin (BTC), for instance, surged by 9% on its weekly chart to trade at $84k, followed by Ethereum (ETH), which returned to $1,665 after “printing” 10% gains within the same period.
However, the market faces another test as it comes up against four key events that are expected in the US this week.
The US Retail Sales
The US Retail Sales for March 2025 is expected on Wednesday, April 16, with market participants eyeing this to predict the next move of the Federal Reserve. According to our research, this measures consumer spending and has long been used to determine the economic health of a country. In the February data, the US Retail Sales saw a 1.9% increase to 3.1%. Analysts believe that strong retail sales are bad for the crypto market as they eliminate fear of recession and discourage the decision to push money into risk assets.
Initial Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report in the previous week saw a surge from 219,000 to 223,000. The next report, expected on April 17, would provide a clear overview of the health of the labour market. As previously mentioned in our report, a rise in claims is good for the crypto market as it triggers recession fear and consequently drives inflow to leading risk assets.
Consumer Inflation Expectations
The Consumer Inflation Expectations by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is expected this week. The Expectations surged from 3% in January to 3.1% in February. Fascinatingly, economists have predicted another surge to 3.3% in March. According to experts, the Federal Reserve usually uses this to assess the economic conditions before they adjust policies.
The impact on the crypto market is quite interesting. As we discussed earlier, rising inflation usually increases demand for assets like Bitcoin as an inflationary hedge. However, an abnormal surge in expectations calls for tighter Fed policies which end up mounting pressure on the crypto market.
Industrial Production
The industrial Production report, which captures changes in manufacturing, utilities output, and mining in March, is expected to be published on April 16. In February, there was a decline to 0.7%. Fascinatingly, experts believe that the March activities could experience a further drop to 0.2%.
As highlighted in our previous article, a weak production leads to a positive impact on the crypto and blockchain projects. However, continuous decline could be quite devastating. A strong production, on the other hand, would reduce crypto interest while supporting Decentralized Finance (DeFi) platforms that are linked to Real-World Assets (RWA).