With the current volatility and uncertainty surrounding the crypto market, analysts have highlighted five key US events that could either change the direction of the market or force a bearish extension.
ADP Employment Report
The first, according to analysts, is the ADP Employment report, expected to be released on April 2. According to the information available to us, this covers the snapshot of the private sector payroll. Per experts’ estimation, there could be a 120,000 median figure for March, outweighing the 77,000 reading in February. As noted in our earlier post, a validation of this prediction could strengthen the US dollar and mount pressure on the crypto prices. However, a reading below 77,000 could boost Bitcoin price and position it as a safe haven.
JOLTS
The second US event expected to impact the crypto market is the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This would be released on April 1 to provide a clear overview of the available job vacancies within the country. It is important to note that an opening of around 7.7 million would suggest a strong economy, strengthen the US Dollar, and downgrade Bitcoin’s position as a hedge against inflation. On the other hand, a significant fall would signal a potential rate cut and boost the prices of risk assets like Bitcoin.
Initial Jobless Claims
The Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on April 3. As we mentioned in our previous news brief, this would provide data on the number of US citizens filing for unemployment insurance. Claims below the 224,000 reading recorded in the previous week could positively affect the US Dollar while forcing a further decline for risk assets. A reading that exceeds the median forecast of 226,000 could increase demand for Bitcoin.
Non-Farm Payrolls
On April 4, the US Employment Report (Non-Farm Payrolls) will be released. As highlighted in our previous article, this report would cover updates on jobs added, wage growth, and unemployment rate. The previous reading was 151,000 jobs. Fascinatingly, experts believe that a figure beyond this level would reduce crypto gains and boost the US Dollar. A median forecast of below 140,000 could also trigger fear of recession and increase demand for Bitcoin.
Liberation Day
The last event on our radar is the upcoming Liberation Day. According to analyst Alex Krüger, April 2 could be similar to the election night, and it is the biggest event of the year. Meanwhile, an economic policy analyst at Apricitas Economics, Joseph Politano, has highlighted that new tariffs are imminent.
The last two months have already hurt American businesses and consumers, but the April 2 deadline seriously could make all of that look like a tempest in a teapot. We don’t know exactly what they’re going to do, but from what they’re saying, it sounds functionally like new tariffs on all US imports.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $82k after declining by 6% in the last seven days.