Bitcoin (BTC) has officially entered uncharted territory, closing January above $100,000 for the first time in history. According to TradingView, BTC ended the month at $102,400 despite some turbulence in traditional markets. This follows December’s close at $93,439, which came after BTC briefly hit $106,000 on December 17, the highest price recorded in 2024.
However, Bitcoin’s end-of-month drop was largely due to risk-off sentiment in traditional markets. U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, effective February 1, shook financial markets. The Canadian dollar fell 0.6%, and the USD/CAD exchange rate rose to 1.4480.
Data from Trading Economics shows that in 2023, the U.S. imported $429.6 billion in goods from Canada and $480 billion from Mexico, making Mexico the largest U.S. trading partner in terms of imports. As part of the new tariff policies, Canadian oil will face a 10% tax, with additional oil and gas tariffs expected in mid-February.
These tariff changes could introduce economic uncertainty, impacting both traditional and digital asset markets. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against inflation, may experience heightened volatility as investors react to these shifts. Analysts also highlight Bitcoin’s growing correlation with the S&P 500, suggesting that it now behaves more like a risk-on asset, rising and falling alongside traditional markets. This trend was evident last fall when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a drop in Bitcoin’s price and major outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Can Bitcoin Maintain Its February Bullish Trend?
February has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, boasting an average return of 14.4%, according to data from CoinGlass. If this trend continues, BTC could potentially close the month around $117,000. The rise of Bitcoin ETFs fueled fresh capital inflows, further driving up BTC prices in 2024 after receiving approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Crypto trader Rekt Capital weighed in, informing his 533k followers on X that Bitcoin is currently in week 14 of its price discovery phase, a critical stage in the bull market that began when BTC surpassed its previous cycle’s all-time high late last year. He believes the bull run still has significant room to grow: “It is still relatively early on in the BTC Parabolic Phase of this cycle. Historically, this phase has lasted on average ~300 days. Bitcoin is on Day 82 of its Parabolic Phase.”
It is still relatively early on in the #BTCParabolic Phase of this cycle
Historically, this phase has lasted on average ~300 days
Bitcoin is on Day 82 of its Parabolic Phase $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) January 27, 2025
In a separate post, Rekt pointed out that 8 out of the last 12 Februarys since 2013 have delivered double-digit percentage gains, reinforcing February’s reputation as a strong month for BTC. Post-halving years, in particular, have been exceptionally bullish, with Bitcoin surging 61% in 2013, 23% in 2017, and 36% in 2021. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $102,161, reflecting a 2.44% decline on the day.
However, its trading volume has surged by 13.22%, reaching $43 billion within the last 24 hours. With the combination of historical trends, institutional accumulation, and strong market sentiment, analysts believe Bitcoin could target new all-time highs in February.
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