Dr. Jeff Ross, founder and managing partner of Vailshire Capital Management, has made a bold prediction that the price of Bitcoin will reach $475,000 by the fourth quarter of 2025. Speaking on the Simply Bitcoin YouTube channel, Ross stated that his analysis of the past two years supports this target.
Despite concerns expressed by other market analysts, Ross maintained that the current economic conditions are favorable for a significant increase in Bitcoin and other high-risk assets.
While acknowledging the existence of those who believe that the world economy is on the verge of collapse, similar to what happened in 1929 or 1999, Ross refuted these opinions, asserting that the U.S. economy is actually in the early stages of a new cycle rather than facing disaster.
According to Ross, the services sector, a major driver of the American economy, continues to perform well, improving the composite index and mitigating manufacturing deficiencies.
Ross’s optimism regarding the price trajectory of Bitcoin is supported by macroeconomic data and historical patterns. He pointed out that pullbacks of 20-30% are to be expected in a continuous bull market and should not discourage investors.
For instance, even if Bitcoin experiences a temporary decline to $75,000 or $85,000, it would still be considered a healthy market correction if the cryptocurrency reaches a target of $120,000 by the end of 2024.
“These pullbacks do not indicate the end, even in a bull market,” Ross said. “They are simply normal phases of price fluctuation.” He encouraged investors to maintain a long-term perspective and acknowledged the psychological challenges they face, such as panic during downturns and fear of missing out (FOMO) during price increases.
The hashrate of Bitcoin, which measures the network’s computing capacity, is another crucial factor in its anticipated growth. Ross and the hosts of Simply Bitcoin discussed the impact of China’s mining restrictions in 2021, which initially led to a significant decline in hashrate and Bitcoin’s price.
However, the situation changed when miners relocated to more favorable countries, and the hashrate recovered. This resilience highlights the strength of Bitcoin’s decentralized network.
Ross also addressed contrasting views on Bitcoin’s price potential. While many analysts believe there is a limit of $200,000 for the current cycle, he believes that Bitcoin often defies conventional expectations. Based on historical trends, parabolic growth, which supports his $475,000 target, often follows a halving event, such as the one expected in 2024.
Global liquidity trends and economic recovery further bolster Ross’s optimistic outlook. He noted that the Global M2 money supply, a key indicator of liquidity, has been increasing since the fourth quarter of 2022.
Although recent gains in the U.S. dollar have temporarily slowed down this increase, Ross predicts that the value of the dollar will weaken. This scenario would be advantageous for risk assets like Bitcoin and emerging markets.
Ross also highlighted forward-looking data, such as new business orders, which indicate a three- to six-month economic recovery. He also mentioned the significant role fiscal spending has played in preventing a recession and its potential to drive further economic development.
Ross emphasized that the United States remains the global engine of growth, despite acknowledging challenges in regions like Europe and China. As the U.S. economy gains momentum, it could have a positive impact on international markets, creating an environment conducive to the acceptance and increased value of Bitcoin.
“Liquidity is key,” Ross stated. “And Bitcoin is the ultimate absorber of liquidity.” He argued that as banks resume lending and the money supply increases, more capital will flow into Bitcoin, driving its price higher.