Data from Coinglass suggests that Bitcoin might see a robust rebound, guided by historical trends. However, significant factors such as the upcoming Mt. Gox repayments and the German government’s large-scale Bitcoin sales pose substantial risks to BTC’s price in July.
Bitcoin endured a lackluster performance in June, plummeting nearly 7%, leaving investors and analysts divided on whether BTC will recover or continue to struggle. Yet, historical data from Coinglass shows that after a dip in June, Bitcoin typically rebounds by up to 7.42% in the following month.
Tracking BTC returns since 2013, Coinglass notes that June has historically been a down month for Bitcoin, averaging a decline of 0.35%. Nevertheless, it always rebounds significantly.
Supporting this, Murad, a notable meme coin analyst, highlighted Bitcoin’s strong performance in the first weeks of July over the past six years to his 100,000 followers on the X app. He pointed out that Bitcoin has gained at least 28% in early July each year, suggesting a solid historical trend.
Despite this historical bullish trend, some analysts are cautious, warning that July could be challenging. One major obstacle is the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment, expected to begin in the first week of July, which will return around $8.5 billion in Bitcoin to creditors. Some analysts believe the impact might be less severe, with only $4 billion likely to enter the market.
Another significant hurdle, as reported by Crypto News Flash, is the substantial sale of BTC by the German government. On June 25, on-chain intelligence provider Arkham Intelligence reported the transfer of 400 BTC from a wallet labeled “German Government (BKA)” to exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, worth approximately $24.4 million. This was followed by another transfer of 500 BTC, valued at $30.5 million, to an unnamed address.
Recent market conditions have significantly impacted social media sentiment. Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment shows a decline in positive comments about BTC, hinting at a potential market bottom. Since the Bitcoin halving in April, which reduced mining rewards, miners have been selling heavily to cover operational costs. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo noted that price recovery typically follows “weak miners dying off and the hash rate recovering.” This recovery process has been longer in 2024, taking 61 days compared to 24 days in 2017 and eight days in 2021.
While historical trends and decreasing miner selling pressure offer some optimism, the upcoming Mt. Gox repayment and Germany’s substantial sale present significant challenges for Bitcoin in July. Nonetheless, if historical patterns repeat, Bitcoin could still perform well this month. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $62,951.13, reflecting a 2.19% increase in the last 24 hours.
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