As the halving draws near, investors are keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s price movements. Despite a slight dip in the middle of the week, BTC is steadily approaching $70,000 and has gained 2.3% in the past 24 hours.
Analysts believe that in order to confirm a breakout from the pennant pattern that BTC has been trapped in since late February, the bulls must push the cryptocurrency past the $70,000 resistance level before the halving takes place.
Bitcoin’s performance this year was always going to be influenced by two key events: the SEC’s decision on the ETF in January and the halving in April. The first event has already occurred, propelling BTC to its all-time high of over $73,000. The second event is just 12 days away, and analysts have differing opinions on how it will affect the price.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,550, with a 2.2% gain in the past day, despite a 32% decrease in trading volume. Although it started the week above $70,000, the top cryptocurrency dipped below $65,000 on Tuesday before rebounding. It now appears poised to regain critical support above $70,000. Year-to-date, BTC has seen a 64% increase in price due to the ETFs and a general market rally.
One of the most highly anticipated events in the Bitcoin ecosystem, the halving, is approaching, and analysts are still divided on its impact on BTC’s price. In 12 days, the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC ($434,438) to 3.125 BTC ($217,219).
Steno Research, a Danish macro research company, predicts a “buy the rumor, sell the news” scenario for Bitcoin. This means that the price of BTC is likely to surge in the next 12 days leading up to the halving. Historical data shows that BTC consistently experiences spikes as the halving approaches.
However, immediately following the halving, the price is expected to remain subdued before appreciating over the next year, following the pattern observed in the previous three halvings.
The researchers at Steno Research emphasize their optimistic long-term perspective, stating that the halving is fundamentally bullish for Bitcoin. They expect the reduction in selling pressure from miners to strengthen BTC’s price.
They further explain that the true bullish momentum of the halving will become evident once the initial market adjustments have settled and the “weak hands,” including some ETF investors, have exited. The positive effects of the halving on Bitcoin’s price are expected to materialize after this early phase of downward pressure.
In the short term, one analyst, known as Captain Faibik on Twitter, believes that BTC needs to break above the $70,000 resistance level in order to maintain its bullish momentum. He points out that Bitcoin has been stuck in a pennant pattern since early March, characterized by a sharp movement followed by consolidation. If BTC breaks above the upper trendline, which is above $70,000, it is likely to continue its upward rally.
Overall, the halving event holds significant importance for Bitcoin, and analysts have varying opinions on its short-term and long-term effects. It remains to be seen how BTC’s price will be impacted in the coming weeks.